Suchergebnisse

This book challenges the established, neoclassical view of industrial success in developing countries. By re-examining the role of government intervention in the industrialization of Brazil and South Korea, it seeks to show that the key to industrial success does not lie in a simple combination of outward-orientation and laissez-faire, but in the government's success in remedying crucial market failures in the product and factor markets.

After a half century of overtly inward-oriented policies, Brazil finally moved to open its trade regime in the early 1990s. Being one the last countries to make this move in a region that notoriously lagged behind East Asia, Brazil was quick to implement a comprehensive trade liberalization program, which had strong unilateral and regional components. In roughly five years, tariffs were slashed, nontariff barriers were removed, and Mercosur became a reality. Later on, even the possibility of a free trade zone for the hemisphere was entertained. Yet this initial momentum lost steam in the mid-1990s, undermined by inhospitable macroeconomic and international environments. When, at the turn of the century, the right macroeconomic policies were finally put in place and Brazil began to enjoy the benefits of a commodity boom, a new government took over that clearly had a skeptical view of trade. Despite initial concern, however, the political transition did not bring a significant policy reversal. But trade policy reform never regained its momentum, despite its unfinished agenda. This paper examines this agenda and argues that if Brazil really wants to fully enjoy the growth and welfare benefits of trade, it needs to further lower and rationalize its structure of protection; adopt a more aggressive, World Trade Organization-plus, policy to open markets abroad; design a regional integration strategy that makes sense to its smaller partners; and bring trade facilitation, particularly transport costs, to the core of its trade agenda.

A emergência da China levanta dúvidas sobre o futuro da indústria na América Latina. Embora a teoria de comércio tradicional e três gerações de tigres asiáticos já tenham questionado a capacidade da região de obter participação expressiva no mercado mundial de manufaturados, a China, com oferta ilimitada de mão-de-obra, rápido crescimento da produtividade, escala massiva e estado intervencionista, leva esse questionamento às últimas conseqüências. Este artigo procura discutir a natureza e as implicações desse questionamento.

ABSTRACT The superiority of industrial performance in East Asian countries, particularly in the face of their counterparts in Latin America, had a strong impact on the debate about the relationship between state intervention and industrial performance. The structuralist paradigm was quickly replaced by a new orthodoxy whose recipe for success is a minimalist state and an open economy. This article seeks to show that, although the opening of the economy is a fundamental ingredient, its complement is not a minimalist state, but an interventionist one. Not the Latin American type, but one that restricts its actions to major market failures.

Using the growth accounting and factor content approaches, this article looks at the impact of trade liberalisation on the structure and level of employment in Brazil over the 1990-97 period. The results support the argument that trade liberalisation in developing countries has a negative short-term impact on employment which tends to be outweighed, in the long run, by a more labour-intensive output mix. (DSE/DÜI)

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of trade liberalization on the Brazilian manufacturing industry over the 1989-96 period. To this end, a series of indicators is examined which shed light on the technical efficiency and allocational effects of the liberalization process. The results obtained suggest that the impacts were, in general, positive and consistent both with predictions of the studies of international trade and with patterns of Brazil's industrialization. Yet, they also point to a number of challenges to be faced by the state, particularly with regard to deficiencies that affect international interaction in manufacturing and that threaten the gains from trade. (Rev Econ Polit/DÜI)

RESUMO O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar o impacto da liberalização do comércio na indústria de transformação brasileira no período 1989-96. Para tanto, foi construída uma série de indicadores que evidenciam a eficiência técnica e os efeitos alocacionais da liberalização. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que os impactos foram, em geral, positivos e consistentes tanto com as previsões da literatura do comércio internacional quanto com o padrão de industrialização do Brasil. No entanto, também apontam para uma série de desafios a serem enfrentados pelo Estado, em particular, no que diz respeito às imperfeições que afetam o comércio internacional de manufaturas e que ameaçam os ganhos com o comércio.